Data dictionary

Generated from evidence.json · schema 1.0.0 · 51 metrics · as of 2026-07-19 (generated 2026-07-19T17:26:22Z).

Every row below is generated from evidence.json, the metric registry the platform serves its data from — nothing here is written by hand. Each metric keeps a contract with you, named in its evidence class. Metric ids are permanent: they are never renamed, only deprecated. Full claim boundaries, receipts, and provenance for every id live in evidence.json; the machine-readable API is described in API.md.

observed: A direct daily aggregate of a ledger quantity. No model content.
measured: A descriptive statistic or registered rule computed from observed data — a threshold, a share, a censoring-aware Kaplan–Meier dwell table. The choice is registered, not estimated as a structural model.
forecast: A conditional prediction that ships only with a passing out-of-sample receipt: at least a 5% improvement over the best named baseline at a Diebold–Mariano t of 2 or more. It carries that receipt, or it does not ship.
design: Display-only context — a design constant, an hourly nowcast. Not ledgered, not a forecast.
refused: A model that failed its pre-registered bar, published with its failing numbers so the refusal is falsifiable.
pending: Awaiting enough history plus a passing receipt. Nothing ships without one.

The chip column beside each class is the badge the terminal renders for it (MEASURED, VALIDATED, DISPLAY-ONLY, REFUSED, PENDING).

Chain state 22

The operating state of each venue in its native cost language — daily settlement fee, congestion regime, capacity, controller deviation, dwell-based exit probability. Live in feed.json; full archive in history.json.

Metric id	Definition	Unit	Evidence class	Source artifact	API path
arb.state.fee	Volume-weighted daily settlement price on the venue's native fee margin.	gwei/gas	observedMEASURED	feed.json → chains.ARB.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/ARB
arb.state.fullness	Mean gasUsedRatio (or venue analogue) of the day's blocks.	share	observedMEASURED	feed.json → chains.ARB.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/ARB
arb.state.regime	Fee above the trailing-365d 80th percentile of log fee (min 180d).	boolean	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → chains.ARB.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/ARB
base.state.fee	Volume-weighted daily settlement price on the venue's native fee margin.	gwei/gas	observedMEASURED	feed.json → chains.BASE.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/BASE
base.state.fullness	Mean gasUsedRatio (or venue analogue) of the day's blocks.	share	observedMEASURED	feed.json → chains.BASE.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/BASE
base.state.regime	Fee above the trailing-365d 80th percentile of log fee (min 180d).	boolean	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → chains.BASE.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/BASE
btc.state.exit_prob_7d	P(exit current regime within 7 days \| elapsed dwell), from the censoring-aware Kaplan-Meier dwell table on the venue's full causal spell history. The table IS the model (empirical, no covariates); duration dependence is measured, not assumed — memorylessness is LR-tested per state.	probability	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → chains.BTC.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/BTC
btc.state.fee	Volume-weighted daily settlement price on the venue's native fee margin.	sat/vB	observedMEASURED	feed.json → chains.BTC.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/BTC
btc.state.fullness	Mean gasUsedRatio (or venue analogue) of the day's blocks. BTC is always full by design — fullness is a design constant, not a state (spot rationing).	share	designDISPLAY-ONLY	feed.json → chains.BTC.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/BTC
btc.state.regime	Fee above the trailing-365d 80th percentile of log fee (min 180d).	boolean	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → chains.BTC.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/BTC
eth.nowcast.fee	Last completed hour's mean fee from live blocks.	gwei/gas	designDISPLAY-ONLY	feed.json → chains.ETH.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/ETH
eth.state.exit_prob_7d	P(exit current regime within 7 days \| elapsed dwell), from the censoring-aware Kaplan-Meier dwell table on the venue's full causal spell history. The table IS the model (empirical, no covariates); duration dependence is measured, not assumed — memorylessness is LR-tested per state.	probability	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → chains.ETH.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/ETH
eth.state.fee	Volume-weighted daily settlement price on the venue's native fee margin.	gwei/gas	observedMEASURED	feed.json → chains.ETH.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/ETH
eth.state.regime	Fee above the trailing-365d 80th percentile of log fee (min 180d).	boolean	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → chains.ETH.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/ETH
eth.state.target_deviation	gasUsedRatio minus the EIP-1559 50% target: the venue's own state variable (deviation IS the economics).	share (pp/100)	observedMEASURED	feed.json → chains.ETH.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/ETH
op.state.fee	Volume-weighted daily settlement price on the venue's native fee margin.	gwei/gas	observedMEASURED	feed.json → chains.OP.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/OP
op.state.fullness	Mean gasUsedRatio (or venue analogue) of the day's blocks.	share	observedMEASURED	feed.json → chains.OP.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/OP
op.state.regime	Fee above the trailing-365d 80th percentile of log fee (min 180d).	boolean	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → chains.OP.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/OP
sol.state.exit_prob_7d	P(exit current regime within 7 days \| elapsed dwell), from the censoring-aware Kaplan-Meier dwell table on the venue's full causal spell history. The table IS the model (empirical, no covariates); duration dependence is measured, not assumed — memorylessness is LR-tested per state.	probability	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → chains.SOL.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/SOL
sol.state.fee	Volume-weighted daily settlement price on the venue's native fee margin. NOTE: for SOL this is total leader revenue per transaction, undecomposed into base vs rank components.	lamports/tx	observedMEASURED	feed.json → chains.SOL.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/SOL
sol.state.fullness	Mean gasUsedRatio (or venue analogue) of the day's blocks.	share	observedMEASURED	feed.json → chains.SOL.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/SOL
sol.state.regime	Fee above the trailing-365d 80th percentile of log fee (min 180d).	boolean	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → chains.SOL.state; history.json (archive)	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/SOL

Forecasts & validation 12

Conditional next-24h fee objects and their receipts. Each ships only with a passing out-of-sample record, or is published refused/pending with its failing numbers.

Metric id	Definition	Unit	Evidence class	Source artifact	API path
arb.forecast_24h.fee	Pending: forecast requires >=400d of history plus a passing OOS validation receipt.	gwei/gas	pendingPENDING	feed.json; validations.json; ledger.jsonl	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/ARB/forecast
base.forecast_24h.fee	Pending: forecast requires >=400d of history plus a passing OOS validation receipt.	gwei/gas	pendingPENDING	feed.json; validations.json; ledger.jsonl	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/BASE/forecast
btc.benchmark.state_win_share	Share of resolved ledgered days where the model beat both naive baselines (persist, seasonal).	share	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → live_benchmark; ledger.jsonl	/feed/site/feed.json
btc.forecast_24h.fee	Expanding-window ridge on lag/rolling/fullness features; ships ONLY with this OOS receipt.	sat/vB	forecastVALIDATED	feed.json; validations.json; ledger.jsonl	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/BTC/forecast
btc.forecast_24h.pi	pi = p_now - E[p_next24h]: what executing now costs vs the validated expectation of waiting. Sign convention: positive pi means waiting is expected to be cheaper ('waiting saves').	sat/vB	measuredMEASURED	feed.json; validations.json; ledger.jsonl	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/BTC/forecast
eth.benchmark.state_win_share	Share of resolved ledgered days where the model beat both naive baselines (persist, seasonal).	share	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → live_benchmark; ledger.jsonl	/feed/site/feed.json
eth.forecast_24h.band	Receipt-gated distributional forecast: only quantile cells that individually beat the best named baseline (pinball <=0.95, DM t>=2) publish. The center stays with the validated point model; the band prices tail risk (q90 = the desk's settlement-cost risk limit).	gwei/gas	forecastVALIDATED	feed.json; validations.json; ledger.jsonl	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/ETH/forecast
eth.forecast_24h.fee	Expanding-window ridge on lag/rolling/fullness features; ships ONLY with this OOS receipt.	gwei/gas	forecastVALIDATED	feed.json; validations.json; ledger.jsonl	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/ETH/forecast
eth.forecast_24h.pi	pi = p_now - E[p_next24h]: what executing now costs vs the validated expectation of waiting. Sign convention: positive pi means waiting is expected to be cheaper ('waiting saves').	gwei/gas	measuredMEASURED	feed.json; validations.json; ledger.jsonl	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/ETH/forecast
eth.transition_alert.p_entry_7d	Ridge-classified probability the fee crosses the trailing-year q80 within 7 days, given not in regime.	probability	forecastVALIDATED	feed.json → chains.ETH.transition; validations.json	/feed/site/feed.json
op.forecast_24h.fee	Pending: forecast requires >=400d of history plus a passing OOS validation receipt.	gwei/gas	pendingPENDING	feed.json; validations.json; ledger.jsonl	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/OP/forecast
sol.forecast_24h.fee	REFUSED by the validation gate; the refusal is published with its numbers.	lamports/tx	refusedREFUSED	feed.json; validations.json; ledger.jsonl	/feed/site/feed.json · /v1/chains/SOL/forecast

Solana rank & failure 3

Solana sells ordering rank, not inclusion. The rank-price curve, the share of leader revenue paid for rank, and the included-but-failed share (paper D’s failure margin).

Metric id	Definition	Unit	Evidence class	Source artifact	API path
sol.failure.included_failed_share	Share of included non-vote transactions whose execution failed — paper D's failure margin: under an administered tariff, scarcity routes into rank and FAILURE, not price.	share	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → chains.SOL.rank (failed_share)	/feed/site/feed.json
sol.rank.m_share	Share of daily leader revenue paid for ordering rank (priority fees + tips) rather than base inclusion — paper C's M, live. The revenue level is public (Blockworks REV, Jito); our layer is the M = rank-price interpretation and the theta machinery.	share	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → chains.SOL.rank	/feed/site/feed.json
sol.rank.price_p90	The daily p90 of in-protocol priority fee (lamports) per included non-vote transaction paying >0 priority: what expensive rank COSTS, not just its revenue share. p50/p99 published alongside; pay_share = fraction of non-vote txs paying any priority.	lamports/tx	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → chains.SOL.rank	/feed/site/feed.json

Network security funding 3

Who funds Bitcoin security: budget, user-funded share, and coverage — with paper-F accounting semantics (share and coverage are variation-independent; never read the share without the budget).

Metric id	Definition	Unit	Evidence class	Source artifact	API path
btc.secbudget.budget	Daily producer compensation: subsidy (stock charge D, derived from height) plus fees (flow charge F, mempool.space). The level is public elsewhere (Coin Metrics); our layer is the paper-F accounting semantics.	BTC/day	observedMEASURED	feed.json → chains.BTC.security_budget; panes.json → secbudget	/feed/site/feed.json
btc.secbudget.coverage	Price-free coverage rate of the protected stock, in BTC terms.	share/yr	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → chains.BTC.security_budget; panes.json → secbudget	/feed/site/feed.json
btc.secbudget.user_share	Fees as a share of the security budget, with the denominator caveat attached.	share	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → chains.BTC.security_budget; panes.json → secbudget	/feed/site/feed.json

L2 economics 1

The data-availability input price rollups pay upstream. The pass-through into L2 user fees is the paper’s identified result, not a claim of the live series.

Metric id	Definition	Unit	Evidence class	Source artifact	API path
eth.blob.base_fee	Daily mean baseFeePerBlobGas — the data-availability input cost rollups pay upstream (paper H's input price). Stored in wei; displayed adaptively. The level series is public elsewhere (growthepie, L2Beat); our layer is the pass-through/incidence framing.	wei/blob-gas	observedMEASURED	feed.json → chains.ETH.blob; panes.json → blob; l2incidence.json	/feed/site/feed.json · /feed/site/l2incidence.json

Stablecoin settlement 6

What moving the money leg (a USDT/USDC transfer) costs on each venue, derived from the measured state fee or live chain parameters. Assumption-laden by construction and says so.

Metric id	Definition	Unit	Evidence class	Source artifact	API path
arb.stables.usdt_transfer	What moving the money leg (USDT/USDC transfer) costs on this venue, derived from the measured state fee (EVM: x60k gas, range stated) or live chain parameters (TRON energy model, unstaked range). The institutional settlement object: value movement, not blockspace.	native units	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → stables.ARB	/feed/site/feed.json
base.stables.usdt_transfer	What moving the money leg (USDT/USDC transfer) costs on this venue, derived from the measured state fee (EVM: x60k gas, range stated) or live chain parameters (TRON energy model, unstaked range). The institutional settlement object: value movement, not blockspace.	native units	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → stables.BASE	/feed/site/feed.json
eth.stables.usdt_transfer	What moving the money leg (USDT/USDC transfer) costs on this venue, derived from the measured state fee (EVM: x60k gas, range stated) or live chain parameters (TRON energy model, unstaked range). The institutional settlement object: value movement, not blockspace.	native units	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → stables.ETH	/feed/site/feed.json
op.stables.usdt_transfer	What moving the money leg (USDT/USDC transfer) costs on this venue, derived from the measured state fee (EVM: x60k gas, range stated) or live chain parameters (TRON energy model, unstaked range). The institutional settlement object: value movement, not blockspace.	native units	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → stables.OP	/feed/site/feed.json
sol.stables.usdt_transfer	What moving the money leg (USDT/USDC transfer) costs on this venue, derived from the measured state fee (EVM: x60k gas, range stated) or live chain parameters (TRON energy model, unstaked range). The institutional settlement object: value movement, not blockspace.	native units	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → stables.SOL	/feed/site/feed.json
tron.stables.usdt_transfer	What moving the money leg (USDT/USDC transfer) costs on this venue, derived from the measured state fee (EVM: x60k gas, range stated) or live chain parameters (TRON energy model, unstaked range). The institutional settlement object: value movement, not blockspace.	native units	measuredMEASURED	feed.json → stables.TRON	/feed/site/feed.json

Tokens — survival & circulation 4

Population-scale token survival and two-sided circulation. The survival signal is measured operational risk with a published null: it carries no tradable price content.

Metric id	Definition	Unit	Evidence class	Source artifact	API path
sol.tokens.births_7d	Count of tokens whose FIRST qualifying transfer falls in the ISO birth week (pump.fun population, suffix-identified (mint LIKE '%pump'); birth = first qualifying transfer with a 14d quiet lookback (a token dormant longer then reactivated would recount as a birth — rare at this venue)). The mint stream, not a curated registry.	tokens/week	observedMEASURED	tokens.json	/feed/site/tokens.json
sol.tokens.circulation	Per token, week-1 \|buyers ∩ sellers\| / buyers — addresses that both received AND sent (a genuine two-sided market forming): paper G's survival predictor, hub-free construction; computed on the top-activity detail slice.	share	measuredMEASURED	tokens.json	/feed/site/tokens.json
sol.tokens.survival_60d	Share of a birth cohort alive under the frozen death rule (v0.1 (activity-persistence only; liquidity leg pending): alive_at_k = >=1 qualifying transfer in [birth+k, birth+k+7) days; a label publishes only when its window fully elapsed, else censored. Cohort-level curves use week-anchored windows [week+k, week+k+7).); shares publish only from fully elapsed windows, open windows ship as censored counts.	share	measuredMEASURED	tokens.json	/feed/site/tokens.json
sol.tokens.survival_7d	Share of a birth cohort alive at day 7 (>=1 qualifying transfer in [birth+7, birth+14)); publishes only when the window fully elapsed, else censored.	share	measuredMEASURED	tokens.json	/feed/site/tokens.json