{ "schema_version": "1.0.0", "generated_at": "2026-07-21T12:17:44Z", "as_of": "2026-07-20", "chip_mapping": { "forecast": "VALIDATED", "observed": "MEASURED", "measured": "MEASURED", "identified": "MEASURED", "design": "DISPLAY-ONLY", "refused": "REFUSED", "pending": "PENDING" }, "discoveries": [ "A fundamental must escape the price filtration before it may anchor anything; price-derived scores are refused by construction (escape gate in code).", "Immediacy has two supply technologies: BTC absorbs ~0% of a demand impulse in quantity (spot-price rationing), ETH ~95% (state-contingent replenishment; base fee = stored congestion, carry ~0.78).", "In modular stacks the upstream input price (blob/DA fee) and downstream user price are distinct objects; pass-through fell ~0.69 to ~0.34 at Dencun.", "Market design decides WHERE scarcity surfaces (price, state, rank, or failure) - so SOL needs a failure-margin state, not a fee chart.", "Rank is priced separately from inclusion: on SOL the leader sells order (M = priority+tips ~90% of revenue), and the paid-away share theta=M/E moved ~28x with the payment rail.", "Security is bought against claim value and financed by subsidy vs fees; a rising user-funded share can mean a shrinking budget (read share WITH level).", "Two-sided circulation predicts network survival; survival signals carry no tradable price content (published null).", "Waiting has a price: pi = p_now - E[p_next] is the pay-or-wait cutoff; an externally late block raises the clearing fee ~0.31 log points." ], "metrics": { "eth.state.fee": { "id": "eth.state.fee", "name": "ETH settlement fee", "definition": "Volume-weighted daily settlement price on the venue's native fee margin.", "unit": "gwei/gas", "evidence_class": "observed", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "A daily aggregate of an observed ledger quantity; no model content.", "provenance": "6 public RPCs, 2-of-6 head quorum, gas-weighted daily aggregate" }, "eth.state.regime": { "id": "eth.state.regime", "name": "ETH congestion regime", "definition": "Fee above the trailing-365d 80th percentile of log fee (min 180d).", "unit": "boolean", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "A descriptive threshold rule, not an identified regime model; threshold choice is registered, not estimated.", "provenance": "6 public RPCs, 2-of-6 head quorum, gas-weighted daily aggregate" }, "eth.state.target_deviation": { "id": "eth.state.target_deviation", "name": "ETH capacity vs controller target", "definition": "gasUsedRatio minus the EIP-1559 50% target: the venue's own state variable (deviation IS the economics).", "unit": "share (pp/100)", "evidence_class": "observed", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Controller semantics per the protocol spec; not a demand estimate.", "provenance": "6 public RPCs, 2-of-6 head quorum, gas-weighted daily aggregate" }, "eth.forecast_24h.fee": { "id": "eth.forecast_24h.fee", "name": "ETH next-24h fee forecast", "definition": "Expanding-window ridge on lag/rolling/fullness features; ships ONLY with this OOS receipt.", "unit": "gwei/gas", "evidence_class": "forecast", "chip": "VALIDATED", "boundary": "A conditional point forecast of the venue fee level; NOT a return prediction of any asset.", "provenance": "6 public RPCs, 2-of-6 head quorum, gas-weighted daily aggregate", "receipt": { "oos_days": 3078, "improvement_vs_best_baseline": 0.132, "dm_t": 16.41, "best_baseline": "AR5", "validated": "2026-07-14", "unlock_criteria": "improvement_vs_best_baseline >= 0.05 and dm_t >= 2 on expanding-window OOS", "protocol": "exec-forecast DESIGN.md experiment B (pre-registered)" } }, "eth.forecast_24h.pi": { "id": "eth.forecast_24h.pi", "name": "ETH net-immediacy premium (pi)", "definition": "pi = p_now - E[p_next24h]: what executing now costs vs the validated expectation of waiting. Sign convention: positive pi means waiting is expected to be cheaper ('waiting saves').", "unit": "gwei/gas", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Decision object built from an observed price and a receipted forecast; paper B identifies the waiting price at the congested margin, this is its live analogue.", "provenance": "6 public RPCs, 2-of-6 head quorum, gas-weighted daily aggregate" }, "btc.state.fee": { "id": "btc.state.fee", "name": "BTC settlement fee", "definition": "Volume-weighted daily settlement price on the venue's native fee margin.", "unit": "sat/vB", "evidence_class": "observed", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "A daily aggregate of an observed ledger quantity; no model content.", "provenance": "mempool.space mining API (median of block avgFee_50), panel bootstrap pre-2026" }, "btc.state.regime": { "id": "btc.state.regime", "name": "BTC congestion regime", "definition": "Fee above the trailing-365d 80th percentile of log fee (min 180d).", "unit": "boolean", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "A descriptive threshold rule, not an identified regime model; threshold choice is registered, not estimated.", "provenance": "mempool.space mining API (median of block avgFee_50), panel bootstrap pre-2026" }, "btc.state.fullness": { "id": "btc.state.fullness", "name": "BTC capacity used", "definition": "Mean gasUsedRatio (or venue analogue) of the day's blocks. BTC is always full by design \u2014 fullness is a design constant, not a state (spot rationing).", "unit": "share", "evidence_class": "design", "chip": "DISPLAY-ONLY", "boundary": "Utilization, not scarcity: slack aggregate capacity can coexist with binding local scarcity.", "provenance": "mempool.space mining API (median of block avgFee_50), panel bootstrap pre-2026" }, "btc.forecast_24h.fee": { "id": "btc.forecast_24h.fee", "name": "BTC next-24h fee forecast", "definition": "Expanding-window ridge on lag/rolling/fullness features; ships ONLY with this OOS receipt.", "unit": "sat/vB", "evidence_class": "forecast", "chip": "VALIDATED", "boundary": "A conditional point forecast of the venue fee level; NOT a return prediction of any asset.", "provenance": "mempool.space mining API (median of block avgFee_50), panel bootstrap pre-2026", "receipt": { "oos_days": 4824, "improvement_vs_best_baseline": 0.067, "dm_t": 13.25, "best_baseline": "AR5", "validated": "2026-07-14", "unlock_criteria": "improvement_vs_best_baseline >= 0.05 and dm_t >= 2 on expanding-window OOS", "protocol": "exec-forecast DESIGN.md experiment B (pre-registered)" } }, "btc.forecast_24h.pi": { "id": "btc.forecast_24h.pi", "name": "BTC net-immediacy premium (pi)", "definition": "pi = p_now - E[p_next24h]: what executing now costs vs the validated expectation of waiting. Sign convention: positive pi means waiting is expected to be cheaper ('waiting saves').", "unit": "sat/vB", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Decision object built from an observed price and a receipted forecast; paper B identifies the waiting price at the congested margin, this is its live analogue.", "provenance": "mempool.space mining API (median of block avgFee_50), panel bootstrap pre-2026" }, "sol.state.fee": { "id": "sol.state.fee", "name": "SOL settlement fee", "definition": "Volume-weighted daily settlement price on the venue's native fee margin. NOTE: for SOL this is total leader revenue per transaction, undecomposed into base vs rank components.", "unit": "lamports/tx", "evidence_class": "observed", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "A daily aggregate of an observed ledger quantity; no model content.", "provenance": "CryptoHouse complete-ledger solana.blocks (whole-batch rejection on stream errors)" }, "sol.state.regime": { "id": "sol.state.regime", "name": "SOL congestion regime", "definition": "Fee above the trailing-365d 80th percentile of log fee (min 180d).", "unit": "boolean", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "A descriptive threshold rule, not an identified regime model; threshold choice is registered, not estimated.", "provenance": "CryptoHouse complete-ledger solana.blocks (whole-batch rejection on stream errors)" }, "sol.state.fullness": { "id": "sol.state.fullness", "name": "SOL capacity used", "definition": "Mean gasUsedRatio (or venue analogue) of the day's blocks.", "unit": "share", "evidence_class": "observed", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Utilization, not scarcity: slack aggregate capacity can coexist with binding local scarcity.", "provenance": "CryptoHouse complete-ledger solana.blocks (whole-batch rejection on stream errors)" }, "sol.forecast_24h.fee": { "id": "sol.forecast_24h.fee", "name": "SOL next-24h fee forecast", "definition": "REFUSED by the validation gate; the refusal is published with its numbers.", "unit": "lamports/tx", "evidence_class": "refused", "chip": "REFUSED", "boundary": "The model UNDERPERFORMS the naive baseline on this venue at this horizon; shipping it would be malpractice.", "provenance": "CryptoHouse complete-ledger solana.blocks (whole-batch rejection on stream errors)", "receipt": { "oos_days": 970, "improvement_vs_best_baseline": -0.6078, "dm_t": -3.08, "best_baseline": "persist", "validated": "2026-07-17", "unlock_criteria": "improvement_vs_best_baseline >= 0.05 and dm_t >= 2 on expanding-window OOS", "protocol": "exec-forecast DESIGN.md experiment B (pre-registered)" } }, "arb.state.fee": { "id": "arb.state.fee", "name": "ARB settlement fee", "definition": "Volume-weighted daily settlement price on the venue's native fee margin.", "unit": "gwei/gas", "evidence_class": "observed", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "A daily aggregate of an observed ledger quantity; no model content.", "provenance": "chain RPC, sampled fee history (rpc-sampled tier)" }, "arb.state.regime": { "id": "arb.state.regime", "name": "ARB congestion regime", "definition": "Fee above the trailing-365d 80th percentile of log fee (min 180d).", "unit": "boolean", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "A descriptive threshold rule, not an identified regime model; threshold choice is registered, not estimated.", "provenance": "chain RPC, sampled fee history (rpc-sampled tier)" }, "arb.state.fullness": { "id": "arb.state.fullness", "name": "ARB capacity used", "definition": "Mean gasUsedRatio (or venue analogue) of the day's blocks.", "unit": "share", "evidence_class": "observed", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Utilization, not scarcity: slack aggregate capacity can coexist with binding local scarcity.", "provenance": "chain RPC, sampled fee history (rpc-sampled tier)" }, "arb.forecast_24h.fee": { "id": "arb.forecast_24h.fee", "name": "ARB next-24h fee forecast", "definition": "Pending: forecast requires >=400d of history plus a passing OOS validation receipt.", "unit": "gwei/gas", "evidence_class": "pending", "chip": "PENDING", "boundary": "Nothing ships without a receipt (charter).", "provenance": "chain RPC, sampled fee history (rpc-sampled tier)" }, "base.state.fee": { "id": "base.state.fee", "name": "BASE settlement fee", "definition": "Volume-weighted daily settlement price on the venue's native fee margin.", "unit": "gwei/gas", "evidence_class": "observed", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "A daily aggregate of an observed ledger quantity; no model content.", "provenance": "chain RPC, sampled fee history (rpc-sampled tier)" }, "base.state.regime": { "id": "base.state.regime", "name": "BASE congestion regime", "definition": "Fee above the trailing-365d 80th percentile of log fee (min 180d).", "unit": "boolean", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "A descriptive threshold rule, not an identified regime model; threshold choice is registered, not estimated.", "provenance": "chain RPC, sampled fee history (rpc-sampled tier)" }, "base.state.fullness": { "id": "base.state.fullness", "name": "BASE capacity used", "definition": "Mean gasUsedRatio (or venue analogue) of the day's blocks.", "unit": "share", "evidence_class": "observed", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Utilization, not scarcity: slack aggregate capacity can coexist with binding local scarcity.", "provenance": "chain RPC, sampled fee history (rpc-sampled tier)" }, "base.forecast_24h.fee": { "id": "base.forecast_24h.fee", "name": "BASE next-24h fee forecast", "definition": "Pending: forecast requires >=400d of history plus a passing OOS validation receipt.", "unit": "gwei/gas", "evidence_class": "pending", "chip": "PENDING", "boundary": "Nothing ships without a receipt (charter).", "provenance": "chain RPC, sampled fee history (rpc-sampled tier)" }, "op.state.fee": { "id": "op.state.fee", "name": "OP settlement fee", "definition": "Volume-weighted daily settlement price on the venue's native fee margin.", "unit": "gwei/gas", "evidence_class": "observed", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "A daily aggregate of an observed ledger quantity; no model content.", "provenance": "chain RPC, sampled fee history (rpc-sampled tier)" }, "op.state.regime": { "id": "op.state.regime", "name": "OP congestion regime", "definition": "Fee above the trailing-365d 80th percentile of log fee (min 180d).", "unit": "boolean", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "A descriptive threshold rule, not an identified regime model; threshold choice is registered, not estimated.", "provenance": "chain RPC, sampled fee history (rpc-sampled tier)" }, "op.state.fullness": { "id": "op.state.fullness", "name": "OP capacity used", "definition": "Mean gasUsedRatio (or venue analogue) of the day's blocks.", "unit": "share", "evidence_class": "observed", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Utilization, not scarcity: slack aggregate capacity can coexist with binding local scarcity.", "provenance": "chain RPC, sampled fee history (rpc-sampled tier)" }, "op.forecast_24h.fee": { "id": "op.forecast_24h.fee", "name": "OP next-24h fee forecast", "definition": "Pending: forecast requires >=400d of history plus a passing OOS validation receipt.", "unit": "gwei/gas", "evidence_class": "pending", "chip": "PENDING", "boundary": "Nothing ships without a receipt (charter).", "provenance": "chain RPC, sampled fee history (rpc-sampled tier)" }, "eth.transition_alert.p_entry_7d": { "id": "eth.transition_alert.p_entry_7d", "name": "ETH P(congestion entry, 7d)", "definition": "Ridge-classified probability the fee crosses the trailing-year q80 within 7 days, given not in regime.", "unit": "probability", "evidence_class": "forecast", "chip": "VALIDATED", "boundary": "Validated as an entry alert (ETH era-split +14.9% last-3y); day-ahead REGIME forecasting failed its bar and does not ship.", "provenance": "6 public RPCs, 2-of-6 head quorum, gas-weighted daily aggregate", "receipt": { "note": "B2 era-split validation; see DESIGN.md", "unlock_criteria": "improvement_vs_best_baseline >= 0.05 and dm_t >= 2 on expanding-window OOS", "protocol": "exec-forecast DESIGN.md experiment B2" } }, "eth.nowcast.fee": { "id": "eth.nowcast.fee", "name": "ETH hourly nowcast", "definition": "Last completed hour's mean fee from live blocks.", "unit": "gwei/gas", "evidence_class": "design", "chip": "DISPLAY-ONLY", "boundary": "Display-only context; hourly values are not forecasts and are not ledgered.", "provenance": "6 public RPCs, 2-of-6 head quorum, gas-weighted daily aggregate" }, "eth.benchmark.state_win_share": { "id": "eth.benchmark.state_win_share", "name": "ETH live benchmark win share", "definition": "Share of resolved ledgered days where the model beat both naive baselines (persist, seasonal).", "unit": "share", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Computed from the append-only ledger; accrues only forward, never backfilled.", "provenance": "append-only ledger.jsonl" }, "btc.benchmark.state_win_share": { "id": "btc.benchmark.state_win_share", "name": "BTC live benchmark win share", "definition": "Share of resolved ledgered days where the model beat both naive baselines (persist, seasonal).", "unit": "share", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Computed from the append-only ledger; accrues only forward, never backfilled.", "provenance": "append-only ledger.jsonl" }, "eth.blob.base_fee": { "id": "eth.blob.base_fee", "name": "ETH blob base fee (the L2 input price)", "definition": "Daily mean baseFeePerBlobGas \u2014 the data-availability input cost rollups pay upstream (paper H's input price). Stored in wei; displayed adaptively. The level series is public elsewhere (growthepie, L2Beat); our layer is the pass-through/incidence framing.", "unit": "wei/blob-gas", "evidence_class": "observed", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "An observed protocol price. Pass-through into L2 user fees is the PAPER's identified result (0.69 to 0.34 around Dencun); the live series makes no pass-through claim of its own.", "provenance": "6 public RPCs, VALUE quorum across 2 providers (consensus data must match exactly)" }, "btc.secbudget.budget": { "id": "btc.secbudget.budget", "name": "BTC security budget (B = D + F)", "definition": "Daily producer compensation: subsidy (stock charge D, derived from height) plus fees (flow charge F, mempool.space). The level is public elsewhere (Coin Metrics); our layer is the paper-F accounting semantics.", "unit": "BTC/day", "evidence_class": "observed", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "An accounting identity on observed flows; says nothing about whether the level is adequate (required coverage is unobserved \u2014 paper F's own boundary).", "provenance": "mempool.space mining API (median of block avgFee_50), panel bootstrap pre-2026" }, "btc.secbudget.user_share": { "id": "btc.secbudget.user_share", "name": "BTC user-funded share (U = F/B)", "definition": "Fees as a share of the security budget, with the denominator caveat attached.", "unit": "share", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "U can rise MECHANICALLY through subsidy decay while the budget shrinks (paper F theorem: share and coverage are variation-independent) \u2014 never read U without B.", "provenance": "mempool.space mining API (median of block avgFee_50), panel bootstrap pre-2026" }, "btc.secbudget.coverage": { "id": "btc.secbudget.coverage", "name": "BTC security coverage (annualized B / issued supply)", "definition": "Price-free coverage rate of the protected stock, in BTC terms.", "unit": "share/yr", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Coverage of ISSUED SUPPLY, not of market value under stress; adequacy is not claimed.", "provenance": "mempool.space mining API (median of block avgFee_50), panel bootstrap pre-2026" }, "btc.confirmation.p_within_k": { "id": "btc.confirmation.p_within_k", "name": "BTC confirmation probability by fee tier", "definition": "P(a transaction paying fee tier f confirms within k blocks | current mempool state), from the realized per-block clearing-floor hazard (a tx clears at the first subsequent block whose floor <= f). State-conditional on the latest floor (calm/moderate/busy); horizons k in {1,3,6} blocks. Ships ONLY with the walk-forward OOS receipt below.", "unit": "probability", "evidence_class": "forecast", "chip": "VALIDATED", "boundary": "A conditional confirmation-timing forecast for a fee LEVEL, not a fee recommendation or price prediction; assumes the arriving tx is marginal and reads confirmation off realized clearing floors (queue-position and CPFP dynamics unmodelled). Floor = feeRange p10.", "provenance": "mempool.space mining API (median of block avgFee_50), panel bootstrap pre-2026", "receipt": { "oos_arrivals": 2008, "oos_cells": 42168, "brier_model": 0.01037, "brier_persist": 0.02741, "brier_climatology": 0.01257, "best_baseline": "climatology", "improvement_vs_best_baseline": 0.175, "dm_t": 3.12, "validated_bool": true, "protocol": "state-conditional empirical hazard on realized per-block clearing floors; expanding-window walk-forward, refit daily; Brier vs persistence & fee-only climatology; DM Newey-West L=12", "validated": "2026-07-19", "unlock_criteria": "brier_improvement_vs_best_baseline >= 0.05 and dm_t >= 2 on walk-forward OOS (state-conditional hazard vs the best of persistence and fee-only climatology)" } }, "sol.failure.included_failed_share": { "id": "sol.failure.included_failed_share", "name": "SOL included-but-failed share (non-vote)", "definition": "Share of included non-vote transactions whose execution failed \u2014 paper D's failure margin: under an administered tariff, scarcity routes into rank and FAILURE, not price.", "unit": "share", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Included-but-failed only (source-verified err field); user abandonment before inclusion is unobservable here \u2014 paper D treats the deadweight reading as bounded interpretation.", "provenance": "CryptoHouse complete-ledger solana.blocks (whole-batch rejection on stream errors)" }, "sol.execution_success.p_success_by_tier": { "id": "sol.execution_success.p_success_by_tier", "name": "SOL included-execution success by priority-fee tier", "definition": "P(execution SUCCESS | the priority-fee tier a transaction PAID, current congestion state) among INCLUDED non-vote transactions (err IN ('','null') = executed successfully; era-robust across the CryptoHouse 'null'->'' err-encoding change). Priority = fee - 5000 (base per signature; Jito tips excluded => a lower bound, consistent with sol.rank). Congestion state = the day's non-vote throughput (calm/moderate/busy). Ships ONLY with the walk-forward OOS receipt below (tier-conditioning is free to every baseline; the congestion state must earn its keep).", "unit": "probability", "evidence_class": "refused", "chip": "REFUSED", "boundary": "INCLUDED-execution success ONLY: CryptoHouse holds a landed-only ledger, so the drop-side P(included | submitted) 'landing probability' is UNOBSERVABLE here and is NOT modelled or labelled as such. The tier->success relation is conditional/compositional (transaction mix differs by tier) and typically NON-MONOTONE \u2014 it is NOT causal evidence that paying more buys execution success.", "provenance": "CryptoHouse complete-ledger solana.blocks (whole-batch rejection on stream errors)", "receipt": { "oos_days": 35, "oos_tx": 4703819468, "brier_model": 0.199894, "brier_persist": 0.198542, "brier_climatology": 0.200996, "best_baseline": "persist", "improvement_vs_best_baseline": -0.0068, "dm_t": -3.1, "validated_bool": false, "protocol": "state (daily non-vote throughput) x priority-fee-tier empirical success rate; expanding-window walk-forward, refit daily; per-tx Brier vs tier-only climatology and yesterday-tier persistence; DM Newey-West L=7", "validated": "2026-07-20", "unlock_criteria": "brier_improvement_vs_best_baseline >= 0.05 and dm_t >= 2 on walk-forward OOS (state x tier success map vs the best of tier-only climatology and yesterday-tier persistence); tier-conditioning is FREE to every baseline, so the congestion state must earn its keep. Drop-side landing prob is unobservable here and is NOT modelled." } }, "sol.rank.m_share": { "id": "sol.rank.m_share", "name": "SOL rank-payment share of leader revenue", "definition": "Share of daily leader revenue paid for ordering rank (priority fees + tips) rather than base inclusion \u2014 paper C's M, live. The revenue level is public (Blockworks REV, Jito); our layer is the M = rank-price interpretation and the theta machinery.", "unit": "share", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Tip identification uses the known Jito tip accounts: a FIXED-LIST coverage assumption that undercounts M as non-Jito clients gain share; era-aware (SIMD-96) reconciliation enforced.", "provenance": "CryptoHouse complete-ledger solana.blocks (whole-batch rejection on stream errors)" }, "eth.state.exit_prob_7d": { "id": "eth.state.exit_prob_7d", "name": "ETH regime exit probability (7d)", "definition": "P(exit current regime within 7 days | elapsed dwell), from the censoring-aware Kaplan-Meier dwell table on the venue's full causal spell history. The table IS the model (empirical, no covariates); duration dependence is measured, not assumed \u2014 memorylessness is LR-tested per state.", "unit": "probability", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Conditional on the ONLINE regime rule (log fee > trailing-365d p80); daily resolution; covariate hazards publish only if they ever beat this table out of sample.", "provenance": "6 public RPCs, 2-of-6 head quorum, gas-weighted daily aggregate" }, "btc.state.exit_prob_7d": { "id": "btc.state.exit_prob_7d", "name": "BTC regime exit probability (7d)", "definition": "P(exit current regime within 7 days | elapsed dwell), from the censoring-aware Kaplan-Meier dwell table on the venue's full causal spell history. The table IS the model (empirical, no covariates); duration dependence is measured, not assumed \u2014 memorylessness is LR-tested per state.", "unit": "probability", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Conditional on the ONLINE regime rule (log fee > trailing-365d p80); daily resolution; covariate hazards publish only if they ever beat this table out of sample.", "provenance": "mempool.space mining API (median of block avgFee_50), panel bootstrap pre-2026" }, "sol.state.exit_prob_7d": { "id": "sol.state.exit_prob_7d", "name": "SOL regime exit probability (7d)", "definition": "P(exit current regime within 7 days | elapsed dwell), from the censoring-aware Kaplan-Meier dwell table on the venue's full causal spell history. The table IS the model (empirical, no covariates); duration dependence is measured, not assumed \u2014 memorylessness is LR-tested per state.", "unit": "probability", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Conditional on the ONLINE regime rule (log fee > trailing-365d p80); daily resolution; covariate hazards publish only if they ever beat this table out of sample.", "provenance": "CryptoHouse complete-ledger solana.blocks (whole-batch rejection on stream errors)" }, "eth.stables.usdt_transfer": { "id": "eth.stables.usdt_transfer", "name": "ETH stablecoin transfer cost", "definition": "What moving the money leg (USDT/USDC transfer) costs on this venue, derived from the measured state fee (EVM: x60k gas, range stated) or live chain parameters (TRON energy model, unstaked range). The institutional settlement object: value movement, not blockspace.", "unit": "native units", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Assumption-laden by construction and says so: gas ranges, account-existence, staking status all stated in `method`; L2 rows exclude the L1 data fee.", "provenance": "6 public RPCs, 2-of-6 head quorum, gas-weighted daily aggregate" }, "sol.stables.usdt_transfer": { "id": "sol.stables.usdt_transfer", "name": "SOL stablecoin transfer cost", "definition": "What moving the money leg (USDT/USDC transfer) costs on this venue, derived from the measured state fee (EVM: x60k gas, range stated) or live chain parameters (TRON energy model, unstaked range). The institutional settlement object: value movement, not blockspace.", "unit": "native units", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Assumption-laden by construction and says so: gas ranges, account-existence, staking status all stated in `method`; L2 rows exclude the L1 data fee.", "provenance": "CryptoHouse complete-ledger solana.blocks (whole-batch rejection on stream errors)" }, "tron.stables.usdt_transfer": { "id": "tron.stables.usdt_transfer", "name": "TRON stablecoin transfer cost", "definition": "What moving the money leg (USDT/USDC transfer) costs on this venue, derived from the measured state fee (EVM: x60k gas, range stated) or live chain parameters (TRON energy model, unstaked range). The institutional settlement object: value movement, not blockspace.", "unit": "native units", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Assumption-laden by construction and says so: gas ranges, account-existence, staking status all stated in `method`; L2 rows exclude the L1 data fee.", "provenance": { "src": "chain parameters, live" } }, "arb.stables.usdt_transfer": { "id": "arb.stables.usdt_transfer", "name": "ARB stablecoin transfer cost", "definition": "What moving the money leg (USDT/USDC transfer) costs on this venue, derived from the measured state fee (EVM: x60k gas, range stated) or live chain parameters (TRON energy model, unstaked range). The institutional settlement object: value movement, not blockspace.", "unit": "native units", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Assumption-laden by construction and says so: gas ranges, account-existence, staking status all stated in `method`; L2 rows exclude the L1 data fee.", "provenance": "chain RPC, sampled fee history (rpc-sampled tier)" }, "base.stables.usdt_transfer": { "id": "base.stables.usdt_transfer", "name": "BASE stablecoin transfer cost", "definition": "What moving the money leg (USDT/USDC transfer) costs on this venue, derived from the measured state fee (EVM: x60k gas, range stated) or live chain parameters (TRON energy model, unstaked range). The institutional settlement object: value movement, not blockspace.", "unit": "native units", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Assumption-laden by construction and says so: gas ranges, account-existence, staking status all stated in `method`; L2 rows exclude the L1 data fee.", "provenance": "chain RPC, sampled fee history (rpc-sampled tier)" }, "op.stables.usdt_transfer": { "id": "op.stables.usdt_transfer", "name": "OP stablecoin transfer cost", "definition": "What moving the money leg (USDT/USDC transfer) costs on this venue, derived from the measured state fee (EVM: x60k gas, range stated) or live chain parameters (TRON energy model, unstaked range). The institutional settlement object: value movement, not blockspace.", "unit": "native units", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Assumption-laden by construction and says so: gas ranges, account-existence, staking status all stated in `method`; L2 rows exclude the L1 data fee.", "provenance": "chain RPC, sampled fee history (rpc-sampled tier)" }, "sol.tokens.births_7d": { "id": "sol.tokens.births_7d", "name": "SOL token births (weekly cohort)", "definition": "Count of tokens whose FIRST qualifying transfer falls in the ISO birth week (pump.fun population, suffix-identified (mint LIKE '%pump'); birth = first qualifying transfer with a 14d quiet lookback (a token dormant longer then reactivated would recount as a birth \u2014 rare at this venue)). The mint stream, not a curated registry.", "unit": "tokens/week", "evidence_class": "observed", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "A population count from transfer reconstruction; venue-scoped (pump.fun suffix-identified), so a floor on all-Solana births, not a census of every SPL mint.", "provenance": "CryptoHouse complete-ledger solana.token_transfers; pump.fun population suffix-identified; birth/circulation reconstruction ported from the validated research machinery (research/pumpfun), transfer_type filter era-adapted for the 2025/26 schema drift; aggregate-only weekly scans" }, "sol.tokens.survival_7d": { "id": "sol.tokens.survival_7d", "name": "SOL token 7d survival", "definition": "Share of a birth cohort alive at day 7 (>=1 qualifying transfer in [birth+7, birth+14)); publishes only when the window fully elapsed, else censored.", "unit": "share", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Survival = measured operational risk of a population; the survival signal has no tradable price content (paper G family, pre-registered nulls). Never advice.", "provenance": "CryptoHouse complete-ledger solana.blocks (whole-batch rejection on stream errors)" }, "sol.tokens.circulation": { "id": "sol.tokens.circulation", "name": "SOL two-sided circulation (round-tripper share)", "definition": "Per token, week-1 |buyers \u2229 sellers| / buyers \u2014 addresses that both received AND sent (a genuine two-sided market forming): paper G's survival predictor, hub-free construction; computed on the top-activity detail slice.", "unit": "share", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Published null (charter, verbatim): the survival signal has no tradable price content. Circulation predicts SURVIVAL (z=+6.4 class), not returns \u2014 the pre-registered backtests closed the trading reading at every horizon; holder COUNT is the designed negative control.", "provenance": "CryptoHouse complete-ledger solana.token_transfers; pump.fun population suffix-identified; birth/circulation reconstruction ported from the validated research machinery (research/pumpfun), transfer_type filter era-adapted for the 2025/26 schema drift; aggregate-only weekly scans" }, "eth.forecast_24h.band": { "id": "eth.forecast_24h.band", "name": "ETH next-24h fee band (unlocked quantiles)", "definition": "Receipt-gated distributional forecast: only quantile cells that individually beat the best named baseline (pinball <=0.95, DM t>=2) publish. The center stays with the validated point model; the band prices tail risk (q90 = the desk's settlement-cost risk limit).", "unit": "gwei/gas", "evidence_class": "forecast", "chip": "VALIDATED", "boundary": "Per-quantile cells; locked cells (q25/q50/q75) do not exist in the artifact. OOS q10-q90 coverage 0.7757 vs 0.80 target.", "provenance": "6 public RPCs, 2-of-6 head quorum, gas-weighted daily aggregate", "receipt": { "unlocked": [ "0.1", "0.9" ], "cells": { "0.1": { "pinball_ratio_vs_best": 0.9099, "best_baseline": "band", "dm_t": 3.74, "cell_pass": true }, "0.25": { "pinball_ratio_vs_best": 0.9713, "best_baseline": "band", "dm_t": 2.98, "cell_pass": false }, "0.5": { "pinball_ratio_vs_best": 1.0032, "best_baseline": "band", "dm_t": -0.66, "cell_pass": false }, "0.75": { "pinball_ratio_vs_best": 0.9684, "best_baseline": "band", "dm_t": 2.84, "cell_pass": false }, "0.9": { "pinball_ratio_vs_best": 0.9348, "best_baseline": "band", "dm_t": 3.62, "cell_pass": true } } } }, "sol.rank.price_p90": { "id": "sol.rank.price_p90", "name": "SOL rank price, 90th percentile", "definition": "The daily p90 of in-protocol priority fee (lamports) per included non-vote transaction paying >0 priority: what expensive rank COSTS, not just its revenue share. p50/p99 published alongside; pay_share = fraction of non-vote txs paying any priority.", "unit": "lamports/tx", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Excludes Jito tips (out-of-protocol) => a LOWER bound of the full rank price; includes failed txs (rank is bought at inclusion regardless of execution outcome, paper D).", "provenance": "CryptoHouse complete-ledger solana.blocks (whole-batch rejection on stream errors)" }, "sol.tokens.survival_60d": { "id": "sol.tokens.survival_60d", "name": "SOL cohort survival (7/30/60d, censoring-aware)", "definition": "Share of a birth cohort alive under the frozen death rule (v0.1 (activity-persistence only; liquidity leg pending): alive_at_k = >=1 qualifying transfer in [birth+k, birth+k+7) days; a label publishes only when its window fully elapsed, else censored. Cohort-level curves use week-anchored windows [week+k, week+k+7).); shares publish only from fully elapsed windows, open windows ship as censored counts.", "unit": "share", "evidence_class": "measured", "chip": "MEASURED", "boundary": "Published null (charter, verbatim): the survival signal has no tradable price content. Survival is calibrated operational risk (listing/counterparty/infra), never trading advice; the per-token survival_prob_60d forecast ships REFUSED until it earns its receipts.", "provenance": "CryptoHouse complete-ledger solana.token_transfers; pump.fun population suffix-identified; birth/circulation reconstruction ported from the validated research machinery (research/pumpfun), transfer_type filter era-adapted for the 2025/26 schema drift; aggregate-only weekly scans" } } }